Opinion accuracy
Every opinion we have published.
These are Vigil's own opinions, recorded before kickoff and graded against the final score. They are not proven picks — no market here has beaten the closing line, and this page exists so you can judge the opinions on their results rather than on our description of them.
The public track record is a different and stronger thing, and the two are never added together.
2
Published
recorded before kickoff
0
Awaiting a result
game not finished or graded
50.0%
Win rate
n = 2
+0.25
Units
at one unit a selection
Closing line value
Whether the market moved toward an opinion after it was published. At a small sample this says more than the win rate, because it does not depend on which way a handful of games happened to fall. Positive means the price shortened.
—
no closing lines stored yet
Was the confidence true?
An opinion published at 70% says that seven in ten like it should win. This compares what we said to what happened, in bands, because being right on average can hide being confident in the wrong direction.
| We said | Actually won | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 50–59% | 50.0% | n = 2 |
Every opinion
| Kickoff | Selection | We said | Price | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 22:00 | Calgary Flames NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames | 57% | +125 | won | +1.25 |
| 24 Oct 21:00 | Tampa Bay Lightning NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth | 57% | +120 | lost | -1.00 |