Opinion accuracy
Every opinion we have published.
These are Vigil's own opinions, recorded before kickoff and graded against the final score. They are not proven picks — no market here has beaten the closing line, and this page exists so you can judge the opinions on their results rather than on our description of them.
The public track record is a different and stronger thing, and the two are never added together.
7
Published
recorded before kickoff
0
Awaiting a result
game not finished or graded
42.9%
Win rate
n = 7
-1.87
Units
at one unit a selection
Closing line value
Whether the market moved toward an opinion after it was published. At a small sample this says more than the win rate, because it does not depend on which way a handful of games happened to fall. Positive means the price shortened.
+2.99%
mean across n = 4 with a stored closing line
Was the confidence true?
An opinion published at 70% says that seven in ten like it should win. This compares what we said to what happened, in bands, because being right on average can hide being confident in the wrong direction.
| We said | Actually won | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 50–59% | 33.3% | n = 3 |
| 60–69% | 100.0% | n = 1 |
| 70–79% | 33.3% | n = 3 |
Every opinion
| Kickoff | Selection | We said | Price | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 19:00 | Charlotte Hornets NBA · Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets | 59% | -125 | won | +0.80 |
| 25 Oct 21:00 | Sacramento Kings NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings | 59% | +150 | lost | -1.00 |
| 25 Oct 19:00 | Minnesota Timberwolves NBA · Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves | 67% | -110 | won | +0.91 |
| 25 Oct 19:00 | New York Knicks NBA · Orlando Magic at New York Knicks | 78% | -300 | lost | -1.00 |
| 25 Oct 17:00 | Los Angeles Lakers NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz | 77% | -240 | won | +0.42 |
| 24 Oct 20:30 | Atlanta Hawks NBA · Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks | 59% | -110 | lost | -1.00 |
| 24 Oct 20:00 | Chicago Bulls NBA · Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls | 71% | -115 | lost | -1.00 |