Opinion accuracy
Every opinion we have published.
These are Vigil's own opinions, recorded before kickoff and graded against the final score. They are not proven picks — no market here has beaten the closing line, and this page exists so you can judge the opinions on their results rather than on our description of them.
The public track record is a different and stronger thing, and the two are never added together.
5
Published
recorded before kickoff
0
Awaiting a result
game not finished or graded
20.0%
Win rate
n = 5
-3.62
Units
at one unit a selection
Closing line value
Whether the market moved toward an opinion after it was published. At a small sample this says more than the win rate, because it does not depend on which way a handful of games happened to fall. Positive means the price shortened.
—
no closing lines stored yet
Was the confidence true?
An opinion published at 70% says that seven in ten like it should win. This compares what we said to what happened, in bands, because being right on average can hide being confident in the wrong direction.
| We said | Actually won | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 60–69% | 0.0% | n = 1 |
| 70–79% | 25.0% | n = 4 |
Every opinion
| Kickoff | Selection | We said | Price | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 22:15 | Utah Utes NCAAF · Houston Cougars at Utah Utes | 79% | -260 | won | +0.38 |
| 24 Oct 22:00 | North Dakota State Bison NCAAF · North Dakota State Bison at New Mexico Lobos | 74% | +155 | lost | -1.00 |
| 24 Oct 20:00 | Tulane Green Wave NCAAF · UTSA Roadrunners at Tulane Green Wave | 78% | +115 | lost | -1.00 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | USC Trojans NCAAF · USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers | 75% | -135 | lost | -1.00 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Ole Miss Rebels NCAAF · Ole Miss Rebels at Texas Longhorns | 64% | +130 | lost | -1.00 |