Opinion accuracy
Every opinion we have published.
These are Vigil's own opinions, recorded before kickoff and graded against the final score. They are not proven picks — no market here has beaten the closing line, and this page exists so you can judge the opinions on their results rather than on our description of them.
The public track record is a different and stronger thing, and the two are never added together.
10
Published
recorded before kickoff
0
Awaiting a result
game not finished or graded
60.0%
Win rate
n = 10
+0.58
Units
at one unit a selection
Closing line value
Whether the market moved toward an opinion after it was published. At a small sample this says more than the win rate, because it does not depend on which way a handful of games happened to fall. Positive means the price shortened.
-0.69%
mean across n = 9 with a stored closing line
Was the confidence true?
An opinion published at 70% says that seven in ten like it should win. This compares what we said to what happened, in bands, because being right on average can hide being confident in the wrong direction.
| We said | Actually won | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 50–59% | 100.0% | n = 1 |
| 60–69% | 25.0% | n = 4 |
| 70–79% | 75.0% | n = 4 |
| 80–89% | 100.0% | n = 1 |
Every opinion
| Kickoff | Selection | We said | Price | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 20:15 | Philadelphia Eagles NFL · Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | 67% | +180 | lost | -1.00 |
| 25 Oct 20:20 | Seattle Seahawks NFL · Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | 70% | -145 | won | +0.69 |
| 25 Oct 16:25 | Los Angeles Rams NFL · Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders | 72% | -175 | won | +0.57 |
| 25 Oct 16:05 | Denver Broncos NFL · Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals | 75% | -240 | won | +0.42 |
| 25 Oct 13:00 | Baltimore Ravens NFL · Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens | 64% | +100 | lost | -1.00 |
| 25 Oct 13:00 | Miami Dolphins NFL · Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | 56% | +185 | won | +1.85 |
| 25 Oct 13:00 | San Francisco 49ers NFL · San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons | 72% | -145 | lost | -1.00 |
| 25 Oct 13:00 | Carolina Panthers NFL · Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | 65% | -160 | lost | -1.00 |
| 25 Oct 13:00 | Minnesota Vikings NFL · Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | 80% | -325 | won | +0.31 |
| 25 Oct 13:00 | Cleveland Browns NFL · Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans | 65% | -135 | won | +0.74 |